Intuitively True

Intuition is a powerful friend, but he can also get you in trouble.

When something is “intuitively true”, it means that intuition tells you that it is the obvious answer. For example, from the XKCD book What If? (in maybe a different context), there was a scene where there is a broken vase on the ground and a cat on the table. To an observer who arrived late to the scene, the inference is that the cat knocked the vase off of the table. In this low-stakes situation it is probably safe to assume the cat knocked the vase of the table.

The trap of intuitively-true is that it’s right only a certain percentage of the time. Intuitively, 99.99% of the time. It’s that .01 that could get you into trouble. For example, you may have overconfidence in a faulty assumption - like thinking a stock is a sure bet because of that “feeling”. Or at the roulette wheel, when the ball hits red 9 times in a row, intuition may tell you that black is due.

And, as always, context matters. Studies¹² have shown that intuition can be trusted in familiar, high-feedback environments (such as chess, or firefighting). Years of experience can lead to reliable gut instincts in fast-paced environments. However, with complex, unfamiliar systems, intuition is less reliable. (Think medicine and investing).

So is the answer to trust your gut or not? When the stakes are low, go for it. But if big business or life decisions are in the sway, do your due diligence.